Before the Internet, before personal computers and before he and William English invented the computer mouse, Doug Engelbart had a vision. It entailed putting a computer in every office, sharing ideas and resources across networks and raising the collective IQ of society through human-computer interactions. That dream drove him to design some of the foundational technologies that drive today’s information society – including a few that might surprise you.
As anyone who’s played the ponies, visited Tomorrowland or flipped through an old issue of Popular Mechanics can tell you, predicting the future is no mean feat. Even when we get the broad strokes right, we often misgauge society’s responses. Scientists reveal, inventors dream, engineers build and marketers flog, but human nature has the final say.
Prediction is a sucker’s game, but we have to play: If we don’t predict, we can’t plan. In this article, I look at how the field of futurology developed – and how it works.